Fantasy football strategy

Chris Olave Buy Low? Why That Window Already Closed (and What to Do Instead)

By Fair Trade Fantasy · Updated October 10, 2026

If you came here hoping to buy low on Chris Olave, I have good news and bad news. The good news: your instincts about the player are right. The bad news: the discount you're imagining doesn't exist anymore — because Chris Olave is currently one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football, and everybody's starting to notice.

Let's look at what he's actually done through four games of the 2026 season: 35 receptions for 491 yards and a touchdown on 48 targets — the most targets of any player in the NFL. He has double-digit targets in all four games and three 100-yard performances already. Pro Football Focus has him graded at 90.1 overall, 7th among all qualified wide receivers. He has exactly one drop on the year.

That is not a buy-low profile. That is a "he's already arrived" profile.

Why everyone thinks he's a buy-low

The confusion is understandable, and it comes down to one number: one touchdown. Olave has turned 48 targets into a single score, which feels wrong for a player with his volume. Fantasy managers see the modest touchdown total, remember his name from draft day as a mid-round pick rather than a first-rounder, and assume there must be a discount.

There isn't much of one. His manager watched him go 8-for-116 on Monday night against Atlanta. They know what they have.

The other source of the myth: a bad stat line floating around claiming Olave managed just 3 catches for 16 yards over a two-game stretch. Check the actual game logs — Week 2: 8 catches, 86 yards, and a touchdown against Baltimore. Week 3: 9 catches, 107 yards against Las Vegas. Week 4: 8 catches, 116 yards against Atlanta. Somebody's box scores got scrambled; don't trade off of them.

Why the production is real (and sustainable)

This isn't a hot streak — it's a role. Olave is the unquestioned WR1 in New Orleans and the primary read for quarterback Tyler Shough, with whom he has genuine chemistry. The Saints are throwing at a top-5 rate, and Olave's target share makes him the engine of that attack. His 13.4-yard average depth of target shows he's not just compiling short catches; he's the downfield threat and the volume hog.

The touchdown "problem" is the only thing keeping his price below the elite tier — and it's the flukiest stat in football. Touchdowns lag targets; a 31.5% target-share receiver does not finish the season with one score. Positive regression is coming, and when it hits, the buy-low conversation ends permanently.

What he's actually worth in a trade

Olave's trade value right now is a low-end WR1 price, and you should expect to pay it. In practical terms:

• Fair to offer: a mid-range WR1 or a high-end WR2 plus a usable flex piece. Think players in the 10–18 overall range at the position.
• Too much: a top-5 overall player straight up. He's knocking on that door, but don't pay for the breakout before it fully happens.
• The sneaky angle: target the manager who's frustrated by the single touchdown. They've watched four weeks of 100-yard games with nothing to show in the TD column and might talk themselves into "selling high on the yards." That's your only real discount — the touchdown regression you're buying is the same one they're giving up on.

In dynasty and keeper formats, he's worth even more: 26 years old, locked in as a franchise WR1, tied to a young quarterback on the rise.

Bottom line

You can't buy low on Chris Olave anymore — that ship sailed somewhere around his third 100-yard game. What you can still do is buy him at low-end WR1 prices before the touchdowns arrive and the market reprices him as a top-8 receiver. The target volume is elite, the grades are elite, and the scores are coming. Pay the fair price now, or pay the premium later.